$ASML Is Chinese DUV lithography really a threat to ASML?

There has been a lot of talk in recent days about China starting to manufacture its own DUV lithography machines. At first glance, this might look like a big problem for ASML, but on closer inspection, the situation is much calmer.

According to available information, China plans to deliver only 5 DUV machines in 2026 and approximately 20 machines in 2027.

For comparison – ASML alone delivered 91 lithography systems in Q2 2026, and the company also expects a production capacity of around 130 immersion DUV machines per year, which it plans to further increase in the coming years.

It is also important to recognize the difference between DUV and EUV lithography. While DUV machines still represent a key technology for manufacturing many types of chips, EUV lithography, which ASML is the only company in the world to commercially supply, is essential for producing the most advanced semiconductors. In this area, China does not yet pose any competition.

From my perspective, therefore, Chinese DUV machines do not pose a fundamental threat to ASML in the medium term. The production volume is still very small, and the technological level and reliability of these devices still lag behind ASML.

On the other hand, I would not completely underestimate this news. In the long term, the development of domestic Chinese lithography machines could be a significant factor, as it gradually erodes ASML's monopoly position. If China is able to significantly improve the technology and increase production in the coming years, it could become a relevant competitor, at least in the DUV segment.

For investors, I believe it is therefore important to monitor primarily the pace of China's technological progress, not just the number of the first machines produced. At this moment, it is more of a long-term strategic risk than an immediate threat to ASML's business.